NATIONAL SIMULATION 2024-Q1

Finland in motion.

A live, scenario-driven economy sandbox. Change policy while the simulation runs.

PARTIALLY CALIBRATED BASELINEOfficial 2024-Q1 starting observations · response behavior illustrative

DATA-ORIENTED SOA ENGINE · 5,600,000 CITIZENS · 2,800,000 HOUSEHOLDS · 309 MUNICIPALITIES

Suomilaattori 1:1 Micro-to-Macro Command Desk

5.60M Citizens 2.80M Households 352.4k Enterprises 347.2 MB SoA RAM 18.4 ms / tick

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX & STATUTORY RATES (1:1 MICRO-COUPLED TO 5.6M CITIZENS)

Basic Income Tax Rate (€0–€20.5k)12.64 %

Lower-Middle Income Tax (€20.5k–€30.5k)19.00 %

Middle Income Tax Rate (€30.5k–€50.4k)30.25 %

Top Marginal Income Tax (>€88.2k)44.00 %

Municipal Income Tax Average7.60 %

Basic Tax-Free Allowance3,980 €/yr

GLOBAL CONNECTIONS

World overview

Finland Trade partners Finland links

Natural Earth · 1:110m boundaries · public domain

DETAILED SIMULATION

Finland

Policy controls, public finances, society and production

SELECTED COUNTRY

Finland

Detailed simulation · Full controls available

STATISTICS WORKBENCH

Explore the economy

From To Follow current timeTrend Analysis

Macroeconomic indicators

Indexed series · 2024-Q1 = 100 where applicable2024-Q1 sourced anchor · later values are illustrative simulations

ENERGY SENSITIVITY · PRICE SPIKE TRANSMISSION

Energy sensitivity indicator panel

BASELINE NORMAL Channel

Real-time correlation and elasticity pass-through from wholesale electricity (€/MWh) and pump fuel (€/L) price spikes to household consumption patterns and enterprise productivity metrics.

Household consumption vs. energy price spikes

Real private consumption (left, bn EUR) vs. electricity (€/MWh) & fuel (€/L) price trajectories

r = -0.74

Enterprise productivity vs. energy input cost pressure

Enterprise productivity index (2024-Q1 = 100, left) vs. enterprise energy cost share (% GOS, right)

r = -0.81

HISTORICAL REPLAY · OBSERVED VS SIMULATED

Historical diagnostics

Indicator

Official, unadjusted quarterly observations. Simulation history is shown only for periods actually simulated.

Browse observed quarter2024-Q1

Observed (Eurostat)Simulated (illustrative)

MONTE CARLO · SHOCK DISTRIBUTION

Risk fan chart

Indicator

Distribution of 500 seeded simulation paths under quarterly stochastic shocks (productivity, oil prices, foreign and domestic demand). Outer band p10–p90, inner band p25–p75, median line.

p10–p90p25–p75Median

FINLAND · POLICY DESK

Change policy live

Changes apply next quarter

Basic income tax rateStatutory state basic income tax rate on €0–€20,500 · 1:1 micro-coupled across 5.6M citizens12.64 % Middle income tax rate (€30.5k–€50.4k)Statutory state middle bracket income tax rate · 1:1 micro-coupled30.25 % Top marginal income tax rate (>€88.2k)Statutory state highest bracket income tax rate · 1:1 micro-coupled44.00 % Municipal income tax rateNational average municipal income tax rate across 309 municipalities7.60 %

Derived general-government revenueCalculated bottom-up from Deck 6 tax rates & 5.6M tax base · 2024 official: €147.52 bn/yr (53.4% GDP) · Q1: €36.70 bn/q (56.0% GDP)

56.0% GDP (€36.70 bn/q)

Derived primary public expenditureCalculated bottom-up from Deck 7 budgets (indexed to inflation only) · 2024 official: €159.51 bn/yr total / €155.17 bn primary · Q1: €37.04 bn/q (56.5% GDP)

56.5% GDP (€37.04 bn/q)

Financing conditionsAnnualized; starts from Q1 debt-interest proxy, not an ECB control Import disruptionBroad supply-chain stress scenario Net migrationAnnual scenario assumption · people TFP shockOne-off productivity impulse · % level gap, persists (AR 0.85) Oil price shockOne-off import-price impulse · % shift of the oil-linked import deflator Foreign demand shockOne-off export impulse · pp added to quarterly foreign demand growth Domestic demand shockOne-off consumption impulse · pp added to quarterly consumption growth

Policy rulesOpt-in endogenous reactions from Phase 10 · default off

Rules activate from the next quarter and compose with the sliders above. The monetary rule adjusts the effective financing rate toward inflation and output gaps; the fiscal rule eases or tightens the primary-spending envelope when the debt ratio deviates from its target. Reset returns both to off.

Monetary rule (Taylor)Smoothed rate response · φ_π 0.5, φ_y 0.5, ρ 0.5 Debt-stabilization ruleBohn-style spending response toward the debt target

Dynamic modeRandom quarterly shocks from the Phase 9 calibration · default on

Dynamic mode draws random productivity, oil-price, foreign-demand and domestic-demand shocks every quarter from the same calibrated distributions as the risk fan chart. Your sliders stay sovereign — shocks add on top. A fresh random seed is drawn on startup and reset; the same seed always replays the same world.

Random shocksCalibrated: TFP 0.25%, oil 14.5%, foreign demand 3.63 pp, demand 0.85 pp per quarter

SeedSame seed replays same world · fresh random seed on reset

Historical episodeReplay observed shock quarters from the current state · random shocks pause while it runs

Detailed budget categories Official 2024 Eurostat annual profile · bottom-up COFOG ledger

Read-only Eurostat 2024 revenue and COFOG expenditure ledger driven bottom-up by statutory tax rates in Deck 6 and the 26 granular budget & Kela lines in Deck 7. Official 2024 Finland totals: Revenue €147.52 bn/yr (53.4% GDP), Expenditure €159.51 bn/yr (57.8% GDP = €155.17 bn primary + €4.34 bn interest), Deficit -€11.99 bn/yr (-4.4% GDP).

Revenue profile

Spending by function

Partial sector flow accounts Paired transactions · unknown counterparties disclosed

This ledger reconciles recorded transactions and selected debt/loan flows; it is not a complete set of sector accounts or balance sheets. Clearing counterparties are used where published data do not identify who paid or received.

Model note Starting GDP components, population, employment, debt, credit stocks, and Q1 government accounts use cited official observations. Future policy responses, trend growth, and credit-flow equations remain illustrative and uncalibrated. Values distinguish the observed starting point from simulated outcomes.

REAL ECONOMY

Sector exposure

BROAD CATEGORIES

DECISION & EVENT LOG1